Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 11.076531 13.563138 16.340899 19.654060 23.477522 27.730592 32.797637
2026-02-08 7.295875 10.379266 14.222238 19.277603 25.659510 33.352111 43.220174
2026-02-15 5.132740 8.287217 12.587465 18.693598 26.936401 37.462012 51.675283
2026-02-22 4.065589 7.307484 12.066329 19.246523 29.451259 43.055203 62.124764
2026-03-01 3.099770 6.206102 11.109375 18.946039 30.625175 46.809833 70.258022
2026-03-08 2.456597 5.445185 10.488823 18.974891 32.154731 51.031718 79.146477
2026-03-15 1.831643 4.542175 9.457792 18.184052 32.318585 53.241054 85.260168
2026-03-22 1.543386 4.197183 9.295900 18.733847 34.519303 58.470230 95.868252
2026-03-29 1.276841 3.820981 9.003797 19.002899 36.255885 63.060112 105.717352
2026-04-05 1.070092 3.516559 8.787539 19.357592 38.124168 67.910775 116.129000
2026-04-12 0.902208 3.253747 8.603417 19.732312 40.025006 72.875916 126.888797
2026-04-19 0.707611 2.854438 8.060795 19.357429 40.584799 75.712477 134.469040
2026-04-26 0.576252 2.598262 7.814594 19.591506 42.346627 80.767255 146.039512
2026-05-03 0.435580 2.251358 7.293171 19.212417 42.984456 84.038849 155.003400
2026-05-10 0.318445 1.916387 6.718349 18.629735 43.169820 86.527948 162.782444
2026-05-17 0.266849 1.798962 6.673498 19.181152 45.534981 92.829300 176.987851
2026-05-24 0.199833 1.571675 6.275826 18.881476 46.205113 96.203202 186.474865
2026-05-31 0.155405 1.414378 6.036707 18.910250 47.514554 100.744022 198.055003
2026-06-07 0.105757 1.178810 5.492721 18.121552 47.078941 102.115088 204.301471
2026-06-14 0.088030 1.116627 5.487626 18.669856 49.459644 108.700600 219.682523
2026-06-21 0.069792 1.030800 5.379984 18.938182 51.256170 114.275352 233.487238
2026-06-28 0.055913 0.960625 5.308966 19.291921 53.255113 120.301264 248.260190
2026-07-05 0.044768 0.897939 5.248750 19.665636 55.317325 126.521198 263.555924